In Depth Mock Off Season
Posted 27 November 2012 - 12:58 PM
Andy Reid has been a steady rock for over a decade, but his time has come. He’s been a great coach who has been overcome by simplistic things that have prevented him from bringing a Lombardi home. He, as well as his entire staff is out. There may be one or two exceptions (ala a Duce Staley) but nothing more than that.
Who to replace him, College coach? Former Head Coach? Hotshot Coordinator?
There are no sure-fire routes. One may point out the failed attempts at bringing college guys to the NFL in the past, but the list is even longer for coordinators. For every Spurrier there’s a D LaBeau or Mike Nolan. No coach has won a Super Bowl with two different teams… well this one is simplistic logic, but I will address that differently. Who are you targeting? Jon Gruden was under .500 in Tampa Bay after the Super Bowl victory, where he completely went haywire with his personnel control (see every QB over 35 years old). Others such as Cowher or Billick have been away for a while, and to me Brian Billick rode the coattails of a great defense where his supposed “offensive mind” yielded no results on that side of the ball. Former coaches tend to come in and tinker too much right away.
For me, I’m going Chip Kelly. And while I debunked rumors of how a college coach isn’t more risky than coordinators or former head coaches, he certainly is a risk. I believe in Kelly more than I do his offensive scheme, and I highly doubt he’s going to try to run a Spread-Option/Zone-Read offense as is. There are currently variations being run right now with success. We don’t need to have a Cam Newton at QB, we would need a reasonably mobile QB who can run when needed. Kelly is quoted as saying “You can run any offense you want to, you just need to define it.” And I believe he would be able to do so. He reminds me of a Belichick, and while that sounds dark, it’s a really good thing for this team.
Elite coaching is always going to make you a competitor.
For his offensive side of the staff, I think he’s best suited to make that call. Just to throw a name out there, maybe a Jeff Tedford? Tedford has been credited with developing many QBs and RBs including Aaron Rodgers and Marshawn Lynch.
His defense needs to be run by a defensive specialist, and thankfully there appears to be some available. We can go the former head coach route, or the young assistant route. Either is fine to me, it just has to be the right fix. Since I’m the GM now and I like the 4-3, we are running a 4-3.
My top candidates for this position are Mike Singletary, Winston Moss, or a soon-fired head coach, ala Rex Ryan or Ron Rivera. I’m going with Ron Rivera.
Head Coach- Chip Kelly
Offensive Coordinator- Jeff Tedford
Defensive Coordinator- Ron Rivera
Going through positions quickly
QB- Vick has had a fun second act where he displayed 1 season of his talent at his best and 3 years of absolute heart and passion. But with a new regime he’s swept out, he simply isn’t going to take us where we need to go. Nick Foles looks like a solid backup for the future, but I don’t see starting potential. Trent Edwards has worked well with Foles and brings in experience.
Keep- Foles, Edwards
HB- McCoy is the type of player we need to clone 52 more copies of. He and Bryce Brown have showed a lot to like, while Polk struggles to stay healthy and Lewis has been non-existent.
Keep- McCoy, Brown
FB- Havili looks like a nice player, but this spot is certainly upgradable.
Keep- Depends on whether we find a replacement
WR- Jackson has looked a lot better this season, and seems to be developing into what we were hoping for. Maclin is the reverse of that. Cooper gets dogged but he’s solid enough to get by on offense and is good on special teams. Damaris Johnson hasn’t done anything on Punt Returns but has looked pretty good at WR, and Avant is a nice guy but he gets knocked over by the football every time it touches him, he literally can’t do anything after he catches it, he almost always falls down right away. Salas was a good prospect and is someone to keep an eye on.
Keep- Jackson, Cooper, Johnson, Salas (iffy)
TE- Celek has looked like a bumbling moron recently, but I like his effort and toughness. Whether he can climb back to where he was remains to be seen. Harbor is frustrating because he looks like a talent one week then disappears for long stretches.
Keep- Celek, Harbor
OT- Peters needs to get healthy, as does Herremans. While they both are probably not getting back to their previous level they are both very good players. I think Kelly has a future here as well. Cut Bell and wave bye to Dunlap.
Keep- Peters, Herremans, Kelly
OG- Mathis has been a bust based on his contract, but I think he’s serviceable. Watkins is a major disappointment but he’s going to finish his rookie deal (then collect Social Security). Past them there’s nothing that’s not replaceable.
Keep- Mathis, Watkins
C- Kelce needs to get healthy as well. I think there’s a place for him in Kelly’s offense and more and more offenses are going with more athletic lineman. Reynolds is replaceable.
DE- Babin is as good as gone, Tapp shouldn’t be back, and I’m tempted to say the same as Cole, but I think he’ll stay put for at least this year. I like Graham a lot still, and we should see more Curry soon. Hunt is the guy in question. I would certainly like him back, but he’s a bubble guy.
Keep- Cole, Graham, Curry, Hunt
DT- Fletcher Cox has been the biggest bright spot on this defense for me. I like Mike Patterson to come back as he’s still a productive DT. Jenkins talks too much and has more value to us not being here. Thornton is a toss-up on being brought back. I like Landri but as a free agent I’m assuming he’ll leave.
Keep- Cox, Patterson, Thornton
OLB- Kendricks started fast and has faded faster. I think a lot of that is the mess around him and I still think he has a bright future. Jordan is serviceable and plays well on special teams, so I’d like to re-sign him. Chaney is cheap enough to bring back.
Keep- Kendricks, Jordan, Chaney
ILB- Ryans has proven to be a good pickup. He’s not a stranger to change and his contract is manageable. Matthews probably stays due to his history with Kelly.
Keep- Ryans, Matthews
CB- Clean house. Boykin gets a pass, and maybe he can be fixed. I’ll also keep Marsh, whom I would like to see these next few weeks. I don’t want Nnamdi’s old legs and huge wallet around, and DRC would be a perfect example of the team as a whole. Both are very disappointing and DRC’s recent comments make me like him less. Be accountable.
Keep- Boykin, Marsh
S- Allen looks like a Robin to me, we need a Batman. Coleman is good enough to be the backup safety but he has no business being a starter. Anderson should be considered a specialist but he’s considered a safety so I’ll list him here based on title only. Sims hasn’t shown enough to be assumed back.
Keep- Allen, Coleman, Anderson
STs- Henery has mastered the meaningless kick, so we’ll see if he can show us a meaningful one. McBriar can go. Dorenbos would be a smart re-sign.
Keep- Henery, Dorenbos
Moves in detail:
CB- Nnamdi, Hughes
Maclin to Miami for 2013 3rd Rd pick + Conditional 2014 (3rd if he re-signs, 4th if he doesn’t)
Babin to ? for 2013 4th Rd pick
Jenkins to (3-4 team in need of DE) for 2013 5th Rd pick
Maclin is in his contract year, he has value and the Dolphins need a skilled WR. A 3rd seems reasonable, as well as compensation the following year based upon
I’d strongly listen to offers for Trent Cole.
Trade a 4th to San Francisco for QB Alex Smith
-Don’t freak out. He has proven to be a good QB if put it a decent environment. I don’t see Foles as the answer and there aren’t any QBs worth building around for Kelly’s offense this year. Smith is still young (28) and is only owed $8.5 and $7.5 mil over the next two years. He also has the mobility to fit in Kelly’s offense (played in Urban Meyer’s spread offense). If at the end of two years he isn’t the answer, we should be secure enough outside of QB to make a play for a Jeff Driskel or Everett Golson (or any top QB).
CB- Derek Cox (Jacksonville)- He’s a very underrated corner hidden on a bad team. He has had small injury problems but nothing to be too worried about. He comes in and solidifies one CB spot.
S- Jairus Byrd (Buffalo)- Here’s our Batman to pair Nate Allen with. He’s a playmaker in the secondary. He has ties to Chip Kelly from his college days at Oregon.
CB- Cliff Harris (FA)- Here’s a guy Kelly can work with to get the most out of him after coaching him at Oregon. He’s a low-risk guy, and may produce in his 2nd go around.
I would really like to go after a Luke Joeckel, but he’s probably the best player available, and I have a hard time seeing him drop at all, if he even comes out. Most of the top rated prospects are JRs and may not be available.
Based on Joeckel not being available,
Trade 1st rd pick (6th overall) + 5th rd pick for 1st rd pick (10th overall) + 2nd rd pick (42nd overall)
-Some team will trade up for the best available QB.
1st (10th)- Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama- What a change this would be, a physical CB. You can build a defense around a great CB and along with Cox, we have a good starting tandem.
2nd (38th)- Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma- Very physical and very big. Johnson is a great value in the 2nd round. Like Peters he has a lot of experience at different positions. May give us the luxury of putting Herremans back at guard.
2nd (42nd)- Barrett Jones, G/C, Alabama- Another tough-nosed lineman. He has the ability to play both guard and center.
3a- Baccari Rambo, S, Georgia- Doesn’t have to start right away, but will be developed to take over Allen’s role if he doesn’t pan out.
3b- Ryan Swope, WR, Texas A&M- Reliable slot WR with toughness and steady hands, he’s great after the catch.
4th- Jordan Hill, DT, Penn State- A young DT who can develop into a key reserve DT in the future.
5a- Kenjon Barner, RB, Oregon- Probably will be viewed as a system RB, but he comes in knowing Kelly’s system and offers another speed RB to compliment McCoy and Brown.
5b- Cornellius Carradine, DE, Florida State- Would be a 2nd-3rd round player, but he just suffered a partially torn ACL. He should recover okay from that and would be a steal if he slipped at all.
6th- Zach Boren, LB/FB, Ohio State- Hard-nosed player, switched to defense after a rash of injuries and looked like he was there all season. He gives us versatility at 2 positions.
7th- Trey Burton, H-Back, Florida- Not a TE, not a RB, not a FB, but a mix of all 3. I think he’s a good guy to take a risk on late.
Final Depth Chart:
STs: Henery/Rookie FA/Dorenbos
I see this as a 9-7 or a 10-6 team year one. Obviously there are holes left, take DT, WR, WLB, DE as perfect examples, but there’s only so much you can address in an off-season.
Posted 27 November 2012 - 01:24 PM
Posted 27 November 2012 - 01:37 PM
Posted 27 November 2012 - 02:12 PM
Posted 27 November 2012 - 11:02 PM
Thankfully we dumped Babin today, but a team like Detroit could have been interested after the season if they were unable to re-sign Avril.
Miami was just an obvious location. I think its 50-50 on whether he stays or goes, but I'm in the 50% that wants him gone.
Thanks for the feedback.
Posted 28 November 2012 - 07:57 PM
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