Pegger's Crystal Ball - The offseason FO moves
#1
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:23 PM
Recap - We are 3-9 and out of the playoffs. This falls short of Laurie's comments that an 8-8 season won't do. During the year we've released/fired Castillo, Babin and now Washburn. There have also been reports as to how 'cancerous' Washburn was and that it was a Howie Roseman type move. Something that's important to note is that Reid appears to be overly conservative with any starters coming back from injury and he's focused on evaluating the young players. This natrually makes you wonder why? If he's gone this offseason then why is he taking this long term building for the future approach? He's an extremely classy guy so that might just be his way of leaving properly, but it's still a good question to ask.
Current staff that matter
Andy Reid - Commented above. we should ignore titles. He's as close to the coach and GM type person there is in the league. Joe Banner left this offseason and it was documented that AR ultimately won a power struggle making him the grand puba of the Eagles.
Howie Roseman - GM in title alone much like Heckert was. Remember Heckert was our GM and left to be the GM of the Browns. The reason why is that he actually performed many of the GM duties for the Browns or an easier way to put it is more power. Roseman's strength appears to be making deals, identifying FAs and looking at draft picks.
Marty Mornhinweg - Current offensive coordinator. As much as it's been published that he's calling the shots it's tough to think that Andy Reid isn't providing some direction behind the scenes.
Todd Bowles - He's our DC with interm coaching experience. Has really been pointing out where our guys in the secondary have just blown simple assignments. I could see his next role be a full time DC role or as a head coach somewhere else.
GM Candidates:
Howie got an extension this offseason and it seems like Howie will retain that title. Not really looking to speculate too much here.
Coaching Candidates:
Phillymag posted a good item with Peter King's top 15 candidates. There's a pretty wide range here. Many have talked about college coaches like Oregon's Chip Kelly or Stanford's Brian Shaw, current NFL Coordinators like the Cards Ray Horton or the Giants Perry Fewell and finally there's the consistent list of of former coaches that always pop up. A couple things to think about:
- Laurie has walked through this exercise with Banner before. They identified specific leadership and organizational traits that were consistent with Superbowl champion coaches. I'd assume some of that exercise will map over to this search too.
- There appears to be a bias towards an offensive mind. The league is changing and a fresh/new scheme would probably work well.
- There should be an emphasis on someone that can develop a QB because in today's NFL you can't win without one.
- Coordniators will be equally as important.
- Many of us love the Jim Harbaugh story of coming straight from college, but the truth is that doesn't work out too often. When thinking from a safety point of view a proven NFL comodity might carry a bit more weight.
My Predictions:
1 - Andy will step down as the head coach, but remain as the Executive VP of football operations - Everything Andy is doing suggests a set up for next year. He's essentially the GM now under a different title. I'm not sure what his title will be, but for all intensive purposes he'll be the one calling the shots. For the fans we'll get a front office guy who is also a football guy. Many will grown and moan about not cutting ties with Reid, but when you think of how he's rebuilt this team a few times with success while also having all the head coach responsibilities he is a fairly solid candidate for that type of responsibility.
2 - Howie will continue to focus on making deals, FAs and prep for the draft. At the age of 37 I don't think he's ready to essentially call the shots. That's not what he's doing now and he has to take some responsibility how this team has performed, so I don't see a promotion in the works.
3 - The Eagles will hire Jon Gruden as their head coach - He has close ties with Andy Reid and many have mentioned Philly isn't an option for him if things end badly for Big Red. In Gruden you get someone who's studied what Chip Kelly is doing, a proven firey motivator and someone that can develop a QB. He's consistently gotten the most out of good and bad QBs (Gannon to Garcia to Brad Johnson to Chris Simms). Gruden obviously will have no problems working wtih long time friend Andy Reid.
4 - The Eagles will hire Monte Kiffin as their D Coordinator - He's 73, but recently left college to pursue an unknown NFL opportunity. A guy like that doesn't close a door without knowing where the next job is and at I doubt he's looking for a brand new challenge (ie head coaching). We have the defensive players to implement his cover 2. We'll need 1-2 safeties and corners, but it's mainly there.
So there you have it. Andy is still with us, but as opposed to having two 80 hour a week jobs he's down to one. We've essentially hired the Bucs championship key coaches to bring one here. If you are trying to assess where the team power struggle lies I'd say 1/3 with Reid, 1/3 with Gruden and the other 1/3 with Roseman. Essentially we'll be reducing Reid's authority, giving Howie a bit more and bring in an established coach to fill the rest.
........Thoughts?
#2
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:25 PM
#3
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:26 PM
#4
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:28 PM
Yes, I think this is more likely with Reid being able to make such changes this close to end of season.
#5
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:33 PM
#6
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:34 PM
#7
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:37 PM
#8
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:39 PM
dawk1977, on 04 December 2012 - 04:33 PM, said:
snoopdogg88, on 04 December 2012 - 04:26 PM, said:
#9
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:44 PM
We've had Tampa 2 personel for awhile now, just no one to run, Kiffin is that guy
#10
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:45 PM
greenpassion, on 04 December 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:
I respect his ability as an offensive mind and someone that can motivate his team (in negative ways sometime). He won a Superbowl with Brad Johnson handing off to Michael Pittman while throwing to Keyshawn. None of those guys are that talented. I agree that defense was crazy, but statistically the offense was a far better group than something like Baltimore.
#11
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:49 PM
Rodney_Zero, on 04 December 2012 - 04:44 PM, said:
We've had Tampa 2 personel for awhile now, just no one to run, Kiffin is that guy
Rodney, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on the overall analysis? Does it make sense? Do you think it would make this team better or not? Things like Gruden declining any interest in the Tennessee job don't confirm anything, but it also doesn't refute this path.
#12
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:52 PM
#14
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:56 PM
Pegger, on 04 December 2012 - 04:23 PM, said:
Recap - We are 3-9 and out of the playoffs. This falls short of Laurie's comments that an 8-8 season won't do. During the year we've released/fired Castillo, Babin and now Washburn. There have also been reports as to how 'cancerous' Washburn was and that it was a Howie Roseman type move. Something that's important to note is that Reid appears to be overly conservative with any starters coming back from injury and he's focused on evaluating the young players. This natrually makes you wonder why? If he's gone this offseason then why is he taking this long term building for the future approach? He's an extremely classy guy so that might just be his way of leaving properly, but it's still a good question to ask.
Current staff that matter
Andy Reid - Commented above. we should ignore titles. He's as close to the coach and GM type person there is in the league. Joe Banner left this offseason and it was documented that AR ultimately won a power struggle making him the grand puba of the Eagles.
Howie Roseman - GM in title alone much like Heckert was. Remember Heckert was our GM and left to be the GM of the Browns. The reason why is that he actually performed many of the GM duties for the Browns or an easier way to put it is more power. Roseman's strength appears to be making deals, identifying FAs and looking at draft picks.
Marty Mornhinweg - Current offensive coordinator. As much as it's been published that he's calling the shots it's tough to think that Andy Reid isn't providing some direction behind the scenes.
Todd Bowles - He's our DC with interm coaching experience. Has really been pointing out where our guys in the secondary have just blown simple assignments. I could see his next role be a full time DC role or as a head coach somewhere else.
GM Candidates:
Howie got an extension this offseason and it seems like Howie will retain that title. Not really looking to speculate too much here.
Coaching Candidates:
Phillymag posted a good item with Peter King's top 15 candidates. There's a pretty wide range here. Many have talked about college coaches like Oregon's Chip Kelly or Stanford's Brian Shaw, current NFL Coordinators like the Cards Ray Horton or the Giants Perry Fewell and finally there's the consistent list of of former coaches that always pop up. A couple things to think about:
- Laurie has walked through this exercise with Banner before. They identified specific leadership and organizational traits that were consistent with Superbowl champion coaches. I'd assume some of that exercise will map over to this search too.
- There appears to be a bias towards an offensive mind. The league is changing and a fresh/new scheme would probably work well.
- There should be an emphasis on someone that can develop a QB because in today's NFL you can't win without one.
- Coordniators will be equally as important.
- Many of us love the Jim Harbaugh story of coming straight from college, but the truth is that doesn't work out too often. When thinking from a safety point of view a proven NFL comodity might carry a bit more weight.
My Predictions:
1 - Andy will step down as the head coach, but remain as the Executive VP of football operations - Everything Andy is doing suggests a set up for next year. He's essentially the GM now under a different title. I'm not sure what his title will be, but for all intensive purposes he'll be the one calling the shots. For the fans we'll get a front office guy who is also a football guy. Many will grown and moan about not cutting ties with Reid, but when you think of how he's rebuilt this team a few times with success while also having all the head coach responsibilities he is a fairly solid candidate for that type of responsibility.
2 - Howie will continue to focus on making deals, FAs and prep for the draft. At the age of 37 I don't think he's ready to essentially call the shots. That's not what he's doing now and he has to take some responsibility how this team has performed, so I don't see a promotion in the works.
3 - The Eagles will hire Jon Gruden as their head coach - He has close ties with Andy Reid and many have mentioned Philly isn't an option for him if things end badly for Big Red. In Gruden you get someone who's studied what Chip Kelly is doing, a proven firey motivator and someone that can develop a QB. He's consistently gotten the most out of good and bad QBs (Gannon to Garcia to Brad Johnson to Chris Simms). Gruden obviously will have no problems working wtih long time friend Andy Reid.
4 - The Eagles will hire Monte Kiffin as their D Coordinator - He's 73, but recently left college to pursue an unknown NFL opportunity. A guy like that doesn't close a door without knowing where the next job is and at I doubt he's looking for a brand new challenge (ie head coaching). We have the defensive players to implement his cover 2. We'll need 1-2 safeties and corners, but it's mainly there.
So there you have it. Andy is still with us, but as opposed to having two 80 hour a week jobs he's down to one. We've essentially hired the Bucs championship key coaches to bring one here. If you are trying to assess where the team power struggle lies I'd say 1/3 with Reid, 1/3 with Gruden and the other 1/3 with Roseman. Essentially we'll be reducing Reid's authority, giving Howie a bit more and bring in an established coach to fill the rest.
........Thoughts?
But for a few spelling errors, interesting post.
#15
Posted 04 December 2012 - 04:57 PM
#16
Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:12 PM
Apparently if he comes back he wants full control, etc...
#17
Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:15 PM
Pegger, on 04 December 2012 - 04:49 PM, said:
Rodney, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on the overall analysis? Does it make sense? Do you think it would make this team better or not? Things like Gruden declining any interest in the Tennessee job don't confirm anything, but it also doesn't refute this path.
One thing the Tampa 2 needs to run well is:
Fast pass rushers at DE- check
A DT that can get up field and penatrate- Pretty much check
A NT on the center- not on the roster IMO
Fast LB's that can drop into zone and bubble zone coverages- 2 out of 3 (Kendricks & Ryans) Kendricks would go to WILL though
CB's that can play the run, tackle and play stout zone coverage- I don't know about that
Safetys that can play deep disiplined and help over top- Allen perhaps, Coleman no
If Gruden where to be hired, there's no doubt in my mind he would covet Kiffin, yes Kiffin is older, but I hear he 's in good shape, Lebeau is older IIRC, he seems fine .
* Defensive assistants: Frazier form Minny, he ran it in Minny, Meeks?, Teerlinck the former Colts DL coach, Raheem Morris as the Kiffins successer and assistant?
Draft; OL in the first, a massive DT in the 2nd and a Safety in the 3rd,
FA- OL, SSLB, safety
#18
Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:22 PM
Also, I don't think Reid's going to want a lesser role. He'll either take an HC job somewhere else, or get out of football entirely for a year or three. (Funny thought: How would you enjoy seeing AR as a commentator on ESPN?)
Also, not trying to be a grammar jerk, but it's "All intents and purposes" "and "moan and groan"
#19
Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:30 PM
#20
Posted 04 December 2012 - 05:49 PM
m4j16r, on 04 December 2012 - 05:30 PM, said:
Having an interesting scheme does not qualify someone to be a HC in the NFL. The individual must have certain organizational qualities as well. Whether or not Chip has those qualities remains to be seen.
#21
Posted 04 December 2012 - 06:07 PM
#22
Posted 04 December 2012 - 06:10 PM
#23
Posted 04 December 2012 - 06:51 PM
m4j16r, on 04 December 2012 - 05:30 PM, said:
#25
Posted 04 December 2012 - 07:36 PM
#26
Posted 04 December 2012 - 07:39 PM
#27
Posted 04 December 2012 - 07:42 PM
Vee, on 04 December 2012 - 07:36 PM, said:
Haha, amen. Was thinking along the same lines.
In all seriousness, this is a good post. As much as I wanna bury Reid and bury the shovel...in all likelihood if he doesn't pursue another head coaching opportunity i.e. San Diego or Cleveland, he will remain with the Eagles organization in some capacity. I'm on board with Gruden but would also love Chip Kelly. I'm ok with this offseason from a management perspective. I just don't want Reid calling the on-field shots.
#28
Posted 04 December 2012 - 08:21 PM
Pegger, on 04 December 2012 - 04:23 PM, said:
........Thoughts?
http://public.wsu.ed.../intensive.html
Kinda like "pre-madonna".
#29
Posted 04 December 2012 - 08:52 PM
#30
Posted 04 December 2012 - 09:27 PM
If Andy Reid is no longer HC, he'll no longer be with the Eagles organization!
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