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Boss Hawg

OFFICIAL: Brock Osweiler traded to Browns, may be cut soon after

34 posts in this topic

8 hours ago, VaBeach_Eagle said:

If they think Osweiler can be their QB, that's one thing. But if they just paid $16 Million for the pick and that's that, well on the face of it, it looks like a typical Browns move. Maybe they can parlay it into something better. We'll see.

The way this works is they calcultae how much a replacement level player costs over the 4 years of the rookie contract, let's say its 7m/yr so 28m.  Then you subtract what you pay a 2nd rdr which is about 6m for the same period.   Then the 22m gets multiplied by your expected "hit rate" on 2nd rd picks to produce replacement level players, let's say 65%.  There you have it, the pick is worth ~16m.  Somewhere in there you also have to calcultae that cheap replacement level players are maybe more valuable in NFL because of salary cap and also calculate lost opportunity cost because the 2nd rdr is for 2018.

 

Put it all together and i get the feeling the pick is not worth 16m and the Browns did this just because they can and thought it was cool to be different.  Maybe the biggest benefit for the Browns is getting to the salary floor by acquiring picks instead of dishing out bad contracts.

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49 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

The way this works is they calcultae how much a replacement level player costs over the 4 years of the rookie contract, let's say its 7m/yr so 28m.  Then you subtract what you pay a 2nd rdr which is about 6m for the same period.   Then the 22m gets multiplied by your expected "hit rate" on 2nd rd picks to produce replacement level players, let's say 65%.  There you have it, the pick is worth ~16m.  Somewhere in there you also have to calcultae that cheap replacement level players are maybe more valuable in NFL because of salary cap and also calculate lost opportunity cost because the 2nd rdr is for 2018.

 

Put it all together and i get the feeling the pick is not worth 16m and the Browns did this just because they can and thought it was cool to be different.  Maybe the biggest benefit for the Browns is getting to the salary floor by acquiring picks instead of dishing out bad contracts.

That's how it might be calculated in a vacuum, but in this situation the last line of your post is what happened. Nothing more, nothing less. This is a rare situation where everything was aligned to pull off this type of trade. I understand how people are laughing at the Texans for giving up a second rounder to make up for signing Brock to that insane contract in the first place, but this is a smooth move by the Browns. 

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6 minutes ago, BKLYNYG said:

That's how it might be calculated in a vacuum, but in this situation the last line of your post is what happened. Nothing more, nothing less. This is a rare situation where everything was aligned to pull off this type of trade. I understand how people are laughing at the Texans for giving up a second rounder to make up for signing Brock to that insane contract in the first place, but this is a smooth move by the Browns. 

This is exactly right. The Browns have no shortage of cap room. They actually need to start spending. 

Paying $16 million for a 2nd round pick would have been absurd for every other team in the league but for the Browns, it's exactly what they want.

They still can go on monster spending spree this offseason even with taking the salary dump and next year, with Brock presumably cut/traded or in some way mostly off the books, to go with another rise in the cap, they can sign/trade for more dudes to go along with their truckload of draft picks.

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I'm sure it's been mentioned but these type of trades are commonplace in the NBA. The Texans didn't get fleeced it's just simple economics

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22 minutes ago, BKLYNYG said:

That's how it might be calculated in a vacuum, but in this situation the last line of your post is what happened. Nothing more, nothing less. This is a rare situation where everything was aligned to pull off this type of trade. I understand how people are laughing at the Texans for giving up a second rounder to make up for signing Brock to that insane contract in the first place, but this is a smooth move by the Browns. 

Oh trust me, DePodesta has calculated the $$ value of draft picks.  It s a principle tenant of Moneyball.  I gave a rough and simplified gist of how they do it in baseball, but it's pretty close.

 

As for the brilliance of it all.  Let's keep in mind that Billy Beane's Oakland A's still haven't won a WS, or played in one for that matter.  Everybody evokes the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys when a team racks up a a gazillion draft picks, but then forgets about other teams that did the same to no avail.  If the Browns are going to blow all those picks on their PFF ratings for college players, then they still suck.

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55 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

As for the brilliance of it all.  Let's keep in mind that Billy Beane's Oakland A's still haven't won a WS, or played in one for that matter.

I consider myself to be a sabermetrics guy (baseball only, in football it's still way too subjective for my liking). Having said that, I grew tired of Beane and his countless worshippers years ago. It's one thing to make value conscious decisions and exploit market inefficiencies, but Beane does this almost to a fault. A lot of his supporters point to the tired old "small sample size" excuse as to why his teams go nowhere in the playoffs, but I think his teams consistently lack intangible qualities because he ignores the human element of the game. There are some things you just can't put a discounted value on.

Anyways that was just an aside thought :lol: . I think the Browns made a potentially shrewd move but like you said, they need to actually do something with these picks. It seems like they've had a boat load of picks for the last 3 or 4 drafts and so far they haven't done anything with them.

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1 minute ago, Dawkins 20 said:

I consider myself to be a sabermetrics guy (baseball only, in football it's still way too subjective for my liking). Having said that, I grew tired of Beane and his countless worshippers years ago. It's one thing to make value conscious decisions and exploit market inefficiencies, but Beane does this almost to a fault. A lot of his supporters point to the tired old "small sample size" excuse as to why his teams go nowhere in the playoffs, but I think his teams consistently lack intangible qualities because he ignores the human element of the game. There are some things you just can't put a discounted value on.

Anyways that was just an aside thought :lol: . I think the Browns made a potentially shrewd move but like you said, they need to actually do something with these picks. It seems like they've had a boat load of picks for the last 3 or 4 drafts and so far they haven't done anything with them.

It's not even intangible.  The ability to field the ball in baseball is pretty darn tangible, they just can;t come up with a proper method to quantify individual defensive metrics into wins.  i don't think its a mystery that the A's are terrible in the playoffs cuz they can't catch.

 

 

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1 minute ago, dawkins4prez said:

It's not even intangible.  The ability to field the ball in baseball is pretty darn tangible, they just can;t come up with a proper method to quantify individual defensive metrics into wins.  i don't think its a mystery that the A's are terrible in the playoffs cuz they can't catch.

 

 

Very true. Defensive metrics are improving but are still light years behind hitting/pitching.

I was more referring to the constant carousel of players coming in and out of the organization. Baseball is the ultimate "brotherhood" type of game as they spend so much time together. It's pretty difficult to create relationships and grow as a team when half the roster gets turned over on a seemingly regular basis. 

Bill James really needs to work on an xCHEMISTRY stat. 

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3 hours ago, dawkins4prez said:

Oh trust me, DePodesta has calculated the $$ value of draft picks.  It s a principle tenant of Moneyball.  I gave a rough and simplified gist of how they do it in baseball, but it's pretty close.

 

As for the brilliance of it all.  Let's keep in mind that Billy Beane's Oakland A's still haven't won a WS, or played in one for that matter.  Everybody evokes the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys when a team racks up a a gazillion draft picks, but then forgets about other teams that did the same to no avail.  If the Browns are going to blow all those picks on their PFF ratings for college players, then they still suck.

I think the point of collecting all those picks is to package some of them together for more valuable assets (e.g., proven players, higher draft picks) that have less bust potential. For their sake I hope they don't make 22 picks in the next 2 years. 

The A's, please. Even at their peak the Yanks beat them in the playoffs every year because they simply spent more money on better players. Beane's time is up. 

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