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DaveSpadaro

[News] No 'Off' Season For Eagles Coaching Staff

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Wrangler that's some good research. It's hard to wrap your head around all that information. But the main takeaway is it's antiEagles propaganda. We always have believed in investing in the Dline.

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Maximizing Draft Value by Position
By Nick Citrone (@pyrollamas)

QUICK TAKEAWAYS
Quarterbacks need should be addressed in the first round, teams trying their luck with late round QBs rarely find success.
Offensive linemen offer superior value in all rounds of the draft.
Linebackers & running backs are best value on Day 2 (Rounds 2 and 3).
Teams seeking depth at Defensive Line or Defensive End are better off waiting till Day 3.
Despite the recent surge in Star Wideouts, WRs offer less relative value than other positions
The next 30 days will feature hundreds of mock drafts, player rankings, film study and roster analysis. Experts and fans alike will hypothesize about how best to fill each teams needs and who should go where. Which QB is best? What are the top needs of each team? Which players are being underrated or overrated? These are important questions that will be debated and written about at length.
One question often overlooked, however, is where in the draft is it best to draft each position? Using historical NFL Draft data and simple statistical methods, we can work to answer this question and gain insight on maximizing draft value.

DATA SOURCES
The idea is simple: identify trends in the NFL Draft by plotting expected value added by position with each pick in the draft. To do this, I constructed a data set consisting of all 3820 draft picks made between 1999 and 2013, with information on pick number, position, length of NFL career and Pro Football Reference’s Career Approximate Value.

ROUND 1: QUARTERBACKS
QBs have a very high relative value early in the draft, but it quickly decays; drafting a quarterback after the second round is typically a negative value decision (comparing to the average draft pick AV for all positions). Part of the reason this is true is that only 32 players can start at QB at a time, while there is more need for rotational players at other positions. Players that never get to play have zero AV per season, and so many late round QBs ultimately provide no value to that team that drafted them.Quarterbacks seem to bust at a higher rate than other positions taken early in the draft, but this risk is offset by the immense value good QB play adds to an NFL offense. Drafting quarterbacks in the first round brings the highest of highs or the lowest of lows, but as cruel as some teams seem to have it, the balance is favorable. Teams needing improvement at the QB position should stop dreaming and draft an early round prospect, while remaining cautious of dry QB classes.

ROUND 2: LINEBACKERS & RUNNING BACKS
Despite the increasing amount of running back by committee (RBBC) in the NFL today, running backs taken early in the draft actually add a lot of value to NFL teams. First round RB Todd Gurley was Rookie of the Year in 2015. Running backs taken after the fourth round tend to add about the same value as other positions.

Linebackers provide good relative value no matter the round drafted, but the advantage is largest in round two. The pattern for linebackers is very similar to the pattern for running backs, except their value holds up better late in the draft.

ROUNDS 3-4: OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
Offensive linemen add more value on average when drafted than any other position. This advantage peaks in rounds three and four, drafting an offensive linemen in the third round gives you about the same value as adding a player of a different position one round earlier. On average a linemen drafted 80th overall will add the same value to an NFL team as a player of a different position drafted 50th. Good offensive line play is incredibly important to NFL success, which is why teams are lucky offensive linemen succeed at a higher rate than other positions.

ROUNDS 5-6: DEFENSIVE LINEMEN & DEFENSIVE ENDS
Defensive line talent in the NFL Draft has a lower peak than most positions, but it decays at a slower rate, and in the 5th & 6th rounds defensive linemen provide very strong relative value. Teams looking to shore up defensive line or defensive end depth should focus on other needs first and enjoy the depth at the position. The depth does eventually empty, however, as drafting a defensive lineman in the seventh round is actually a low-value proposition.

ROUND 7: PUNTERS & THE DEFENSIVE BACKS LOTTERY
Defensive Backs begin as a low relative value pick but the position plateaus after the fourth round, which makes them very appealing as the draft winds to a close. Defensive Backs drafted at the tail end of the seventh round offer almost identical value on average to DBs drafted two full rounds earlier. Similar to WRs, starting corners should be drafted earlier, but filling depth at the corner and safety can be done on day three. Finally, punters provide the same average value no matter when drafted so later is better.

WHAT ABOUT WIDE RECEIVERS?
The data shows Wide Receivers are a below average acquisition throughout the draft, despite the recent Wide Receiver revolution of Brown, Hopkins, Beckham Jr. among others. According to the data the best time to gamble on wide receivers is at the start of the third round, where WR relative value is about equal to other positions. This is particularly surprising given how pass-oriented most NFL offenses are today.

Good stuff Wrang!!!

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FL the NFL isn't interested in reducing ticket prices. That's for sure. Their agenda seems to be more about eliminating seats for luxury suites. ATL new stadium is going to break the bank with all the money they get on those boxes.

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Maximizing Draft Value by Position
By Nick Citrone (@pyrollamas)

QUICK TAKEAWAYS
Quarterbacks need should be addressed in the first round, teams trying their luck with late round QBs rarely find success.
Offensive linemen offer superior value in all rounds of the draft.
Linebackers & running backs are best value on Day 2 (Rounds 2 and 3).
Teams seeking depth at Defensive Line or Defensive End are better off waiting till Day 3.
Despite the recent surge in Star Wideouts, WRs offer less relative value than other positions
The next 30 days will feature hundreds of mock drafts, player rankings, film study and roster analysis. Experts and fans alike will hypothesize about how best to fill each teams needs and who should go where. Which QB is best? What are the top needs of each team? Which players are being underrated or overrated? These are important questions that will be debated and written about at length.
One question often overlooked, however, is where in the draft is it best to draft each position? Using historical NFL Draft data and simple statistical methods, we can work to answer this question and gain insight on maximizing draft value.

DATA SOURCES
The idea is simple: identify trends in the NFL Draft by plotting expected value added by position with each pick in the draft. To do this, I constructed a data set consisting of all 3820 draft picks made between 1999 and 2013, with information on pick number, position, length of NFL career and Pro Football Reference’s Career Approximate Value.

ROUND 1: QUARTERBACKS
QBs have a very high relative value early in the draft, but it quickly decays; drafting a quarterback after the second round is typically a negative value decision (comparing to the average draft pick AV for all positions). Part of the reason this is true is that only 32 players can start at QB at a time, while there is more need for rotational players at other positions. Players that never get to play have zero AV per season, and so many late round QBs ultimately provide no value to that team that drafted them.Quarterbacks seem to bust at a higher rate than other positions taken early in the draft, but this risk is offset by the immense value good QB play adds to an NFL offense. Drafting quarterbacks in the first round brings the highest of highs or the lowest of lows, but as cruel as some teams seem to have it, the balance is favorable. Teams needing improvement at the QB position should stop dreaming and draft an early round prospect, while remaining cautious of dry QB classes.

ROUND 2: LINEBACKERS & RUNNING BACKS
Despite the increasing amount of running back by committee (RBBC) in the NFL today, running backs taken early in the draft actually add a lot of value to NFL teams. First round RB Todd Gurley was Rookie of the Year in 2015. Running backs taken after the fourth round tend to add about the same value as other positions.

Linebackers provide good relative value no matter the round drafted, but the advantage is largest in round two. The pattern for linebackers is very similar to the pattern for running backs, except their value holds up better late in the draft.

ROUNDS 3-4: OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
Offensive linemen add more value on average when drafted than any other position. This advantage peaks in rounds three and four, drafting an offensive linemen in the third round gives you about the same value as adding a player of a different position one round earlier. On average a linemen drafted 80th overall will add the same value to an NFL team as a player of a different position drafted 50th. Good offensive line play is incredibly important to NFL success, which is why teams are lucky offensive linemen succeed at a higher rate than other positions.

ROUNDS 5-6: DEFENSIVE LINEMEN & DEFENSIVE ENDS
Defensive line talent in the NFL Draft has a lower peak than most positions, but it decays at a slower rate, and in the 5th & 6th rounds defensive linemen provide very strong relative value. Teams looking to shore up defensive line or defensive end depth should focus on other needs first and enjoy the depth at the position. The depth does eventually empty, however, as drafting a defensive lineman in the seventh round is actually a low-value proposition.

ROUND 7: PUNTERS & THE DEFENSIVE BACKS LOTTERY
Defensive Backs begin as a low relative value pick but the position plateaus after the fourth round, which makes them very appealing as the draft winds to a close. Defensive Backs drafted at the tail end of the seventh round offer almost identical value on average to DBs drafted two full rounds earlier. Similar to WRs, starting corners should be drafted earlier, but filling depth at the corner and safety can be done on day three. Finally, punters provide the same average value no matter when drafted so later is better.

WHAT ABOUT WIDE RECEIVERS?
The data shows Wide Receivers are a below average acquisition throughout the draft, despite the recent Wide Receiver revolution of Brown, Hopkins, Beckham Jr. among others. According to the data the best time to gamble on wide receivers is at the start of the third round, where WR relative value is about equal to other positions. This is particularly surprising given how pass-oriented most NFL offenses are today.

LOL os so the theory here is sell off our14 pick for 25 round 5 and 6 picks where we need the most help HAHA(JK of course)

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FL the NFL isn't interested in reducing ticket prices. That's for sure. Their agenda seems to be more about eliminating seats for luxury suites. ATL new stadium is going to break the bank with all the money they get on those boxes.

Yeah sad,the "average Joe fan" who buys the gear.buys 6.00 hot dogs at the stadium gives way to corp favors,frivolity and elbow rubbing(which sometimes pays off later but....) Totally forgetting WHO butters their bread(once again(

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GreenbleedinFL--I think you're mock is great (& it doesn't hurt that 6 of those players are on my mock too!).  I can only hope the Eagles do as well as your list.  My only concern remains cornerback (& maybe LB--though Demarcus Walker could be moved to LB).  Will Moreau or Awuzie, Sutton, and Lampkin be enough?  I like Awuzie best of that group, and think Lampkin has real sleeper potential.  But two starting corners is a big need to fill.  I read yesterday that Robinson played "terribly" for the Colts last year (with multiple injuries)--so that's not exactly encouraging.  & Mills is going to have to show significant improvement this year, to be a viable starter--since he got burned *way* too many times last year.   So they can't afford to miss at CB in this draft--they have to at least get that part right.

As for RB James Conner, he's been on and off my mock.  I agree he's a terrific prospect, and he potentially fills two needs for the Eagles--a #1 RB and a FB--in one player.  But I hate to say this, cause I feel for the guy, his cancer history scares me.  That dreaded disease tends to come back--from my experience.  Look at what Lance Armstrong went through.  Granted, it can take years to return, & sometimes it doesn't come back at all.  So maybe Conner is worth the risk.  I don't know.

As for Davis, if he's 100%, he's a great pick, but his recent surgery concerns me.   My understanding is that it's not normal for an athlete to get surgery for a high ankle sprain.  It sounded to me like Davis was desperately rushing things, opting for an unnecessary surgery so that he could play next year.  But with any surgery comes certain risks. Sometimes it goes without a hitch & an athlete returns a 100%, and other times there are lasting complications & problems, which can diminish an athletes' performance, even if relatively minor, it can make a difference.  I've seen it with pro athletes.  They can also end up having to undergo multiple surgeries (spread out over a number of years), when all they really needed initially was a good period of rest to recover from the original injury.  Athletes are so impatient these days--there's too much money at stake, it's not always a good thing.  Anyway, I hope the best for Davis, he seems like a good kid, and he's super gifted.

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GreenbleedinFL--I think you're mock is great (& it doesn't hurt that 6 of those players are on my mock too!).  I can only hope the Eagles do as well as your list.  My only concern remains cornerback.  Will Moreau or Awuzie, Sutton, and Lampkin be enough?  I like Awuzie best of that group, and think Lampkin has real sleeper potential.  But two starting corners is a big need to fill.  I read yesterday that Robinson played "terribly" for the Colts last year--so that's not exactly encouraging.  & Mills is going to have to show significant improvement this year, to be a viable starter--since he got burned *way* too many times last year.   So they can't afford to miss at CB in this draft--they have to at least get that part right.

As for RB James Conner, he's been on and off my mock.  I agree he's a terrific prospect, and he potentially fills two needs for the Eagles--a #1 RB and a FB--in one player.  But I hate to say this, cause I feel for the guy, his cancer history scares me.  That dreaded disease tends to come back--from my experience.  Look at what Lance Armstrong went through.  Granted, it can take years to return, & sometimes it doesn't come back at all.  So maybe Conner is worth the risk.  I don't know.

As for Davis, if he's 100%, he's great pick, but his recent surgery concerns me.   My understanding is that it's not normal for an athlete to get surgery for a high ankle sprain.  It sounded to me like Davis was desperately rushing things, opting for an unnecessary surgery so that he could play next year.  But with any surgery comes certain risks.  Sometimes it goes without a hitch & an athlete returns a 100%, and other times there are lasting complications & problems, which can diminish an athletes' performance, even if relatively minor, it can make a difference (& sometimes require more surgeries).  I've seen it with pro athletes.  They end up having to undergo multiple surgeries (spread out over a number of years), when all they really needed initially was a good period of rest to recover from the original injury.  Athletes are so impatient these days--there's too much money at stake, it's not always a good thing.  Anyway, I hope the best for Davis, he seems like a good kid, and he's super gifted.

Thanks.let me say just a little.I believe those 2 corners(your pick at 2) and Sutton have starting potential.Adding Lampkin who can sit a year would offer us great BU potential and possible starter later.At this point really anything is an improvement.It's a place to start to build that secondary.I added in my SS as a future start candidate who could probably come in on relief some and get those NFL snaps experienced.As far as Conner,he APPEARS to be clear.I'm sure contractually there would be clauses and I'm sure he's intelligent enough to know that.The dream of course would be to land Davis and White,but don't see it.Walker would give us immediate help at DE(which we need especially with rook CB(s) and adding in Carraway who can play either DE or OLB would give us the depth in both positions.So after like 1,000 mocksI do annually,this so far seems to best cover the bases NOW and give us something to build on LATER.On Conner again,this stuff doesn't spring up overnight and in the worst case it comes back(for his sake I hope NEVER),there would be time to adjust or find another RB.It's not like they are not out there(see Blount and Charles-still FA's) So,IMO the risk/reward for taking conner with a 5th pick offers to me terrific value should he work out.Kids a baller all the way.Playing for a "local" team would give him more drive to succeed.if you watch the vid I posted he's like a freight train,not afraid of anything(if you can beat cancer you can beat anything).The PR would also be tremendous,although I would not draft him for that.Just looks to me like a win/win which for ll involved is a great thing.I understand we could use additional help at LB(carraway would offer something if needed),but since we KNOW it's not going to all be fixed this year,this mock allows for help now and later.I'm glad you liked it.BTW Woods would be a great player in my view.A little raw,but a nice SS to use or stash

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Wrangler that's some good research. It's hard to wrap your head around all that information. But the main takeaway is it's antiEagles propaganda. We always have believed in investing in the Dline.

The takeaway from this info in my view point is you take the guy you want in the first round but in all the other rounds there are proven success advantages by position to stage your picks. I mean, you can say that all this info is just this guys opinion but he has the stats on all 3820 players during 1999 thru 2013 to back up his info. The Facts don't lie. There are always aberrations to any set of facts however 3820 players is a good sample size to draw on. A lot of it didn't surprise me either. I have felt for a long time that CB's and WR's are pretty much a crap shoot in the draft whether picked in the first couple rounds or later in the draft. What, is actually a better plan for success in your opinion? Taking a highly rated CB in round one and two and bypassing talent in other positions or taking 4 CB's later like round 4 and 5 plus maybe 2 in the seventh? Is finding two successful starters in the CB position dictated by having more numbers to choose from or less numbers and more projected talent?

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It seems the draft all together is a 50/50 proposition. So numbers have always been the safe bet. Unless you just look at successful GMs draft record and don't counter it out with the horrible draft committees. I do believe you can 'win the draft' by being prepared and making good choices.

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It seems the draft all together is a 50/50 proposition. So numbers have always been the safe bet. Unless you just look at successful GMs draft record and don't counter it out with the horrible draft committees. I do believe you can 'win the draft' by being prepared and making good choices.

CB Josh Norman 5th round, CB Chris Harris 6th round, CB Brent Grimes UFA, CB Malcom Butler UFA, CB Richard Sherman 5th round, CB A.J. Bouye UFA, CB Trumaine Johnson 3rd round. All these guys are pretty good CB's. I'm sure I could do the same thing with WR's if I wanted to.

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Okay, Here is a list of the 2016 pro bowl wide receivers. They were either voted in or were a replacement wide receiver for one who bowed out because of a playoff game or etc.
Odell Beckham, A.J. Green, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper. These first 7 receivers were all 1st round picks
Antonio Brown - 6th round
T.Y. Hilton - 3rd round
Brandon Marshall - 4th round

It is looking more and more like 1st round talent wide receivers are the ones making the pro bowl. Look at the first 7 names again and decide whether you think Corey Davis potentially has the kind of talent those guys have. If you think he does, than he is worth the 14th pick. If you don't think he does, then another player should be selected with that pick.

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  3 hours ago, cunninghamtheman said:

FL the NFL isn't interested in reducing ticket prices. That's for sure. Their agenda seems to be more about eliminating seats for luxury suites. ATL new stadium is going to break the bank with all the money they get on those boxes.

Yeah sad,the "average Joe fan" who buys the gear.buys 6.00 hot dogs at the stadium gives way to corp favors,frivolity and elbow rubbing(which sometimes pays off later but....) Totally forgetting WHO butters their bread(once again(

This fan isn't buying anymore gear until the Eagles win a Super Bowl. The last Jersey I bought was Jon Runyan.

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Have no idea if Shittu can play

Shittu is a very intelligent guy. I'm sure he knows the system. I thought he was a little light but maybe he put some weight on during the off season.

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6 hours ago, GreenbleedinFL said:

BTW-Conner is 2 inches taller-weighs the same as Perrine and can be had even later

I like Conner would not complain if we took him but like Perine more.....And honestly Perine being shorter is likely an advantage lower center of gravity and all helps keeps the shoulders low and finish plays with a bang....

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