Sign in to follow this  
Havenless

The Colts Might Be Setting Up For A Crazy Offseason

Recommended Posts

Everyone here remembers 2010. We were not expected to do much. "Rebuilding year", Donovan was let go, Kolb was raw as heck. Vick ended up shocking the world, our offense was dynamic, made it all the way to the division championship. Ended up bringing the eventual Super Bowl championship to the wire, losing on the last play of the wild card playoff game.

Now Indianapolis just had that season. Nobody thought they'd do anything. Luck destroyed everyone, they finished the regular season winning 9 of their last 10 games, beat the division champion Texans in the first round. What we had on offense, they have on defense. 10th in points allowed, 6th in yards per rush allowed, 3rd in passing tds allowed.

2 teams with no expectations have outstanding QB seasons (Luck won comeback player of the year and is ranked by PFF as the third best QB in 2018), so what is the common denominator here? 2 10-6 teams with massive cap room. Which technically shouldn't happen because you can't be that good without high priced players making it happen. Which is what we heard in 2010, and only fueled the concept that if we added a plethora of pro bowlers to what we already have, the sky's the limit.

Team Cap 
Space
Effective Cap 
Space 
# Active 
Cap Spending
Dead 
Money
Colts $106,411,235 $106,411,235 60 $130,441,388 $1,294,090
Jets $102,149,882 $96,209,882 39 $97,873,277 $2,194,623
Texans $80,913,667 $80,913,667 52 $128,746,632 $1,769,452
Bills $79,986,112 $79,986,112 54 $112,061,665 $7,564,040
Browns $79,149,465 $79,149,465 60 $162,594,820 $4,943,286
Raiders $72,915,680 $72,420,680 50 $119,192,670 $1,497,423
49ers $67,493,622 $67,493,622 63 $161,564,236 $2,838,175

 

Do you see that # column there? That's the number of players they currently have under contract for 2019. This is extremely important. Look at the Jets for instance. They have 100m$ in cap space, amazing! Right? Not really. They need to add 14 players just to make their 53, most of them starters or starter competition for weaker positions. Another 8 players to fill out their practice squad. Another 29 players to fill out their 90 man offseason roster. Many of those will be draft picks, UDFAs, cheap free agents. But that still is a monster number to chip away at. Especially when an Antonio Brown costs 22m$, a Leveon Bell might be 17m$. Would be great additions to help them compete, right? Not really. Suddenly we're at 63m$ left and still have 49 players to go. Less than 1.5m$ a player, now we have to get stingy just because of those 2 moves. Still need a myriad of starters. 100m$ has stipulations, it needs context.

Now look at the Colts. 60 players under contract. Almost no dead money. They only have 3 free agents who played more than 53% of the snaps last year, and only one of them made PFF's top 50 free agents list (#49). Everyone else important to their success is under contract for 2019. This is where the similarity exists between them and the 2010-2011 Eagles. They literally will dictate how this free agency period progresses. Remember last year's draft? They had the 3rd overall pick, traded down to take an All-Pro player at 6. They have what we have, 1 first, 2 2's, 1 3. And they don't really need any of them. There is no drafting for need, because they can literally sign anyone they want to fill any gap they want.

 

Here is NFL.com's top 25 free agents:

1
LAW282118.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
DeMarcus Lawrence
DAL.png
2
BEL474300.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Le'Veon Bell
PIT.png
3
CLO535848.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Jadeveon Clowney
HOU.png
4
FOL058566.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Nick Foles
PHI.png
5
JAR254349.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Grady Jarrett
ATL.png
6
FLO572739.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Trey Flowers
NE.png
7
THO124271.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Earl Thomas
SEA.png
8
FOR113166.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Dee Ford
KC.png
9
CLA296952.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Frank Clark
SEA.png
10
COL624212.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Landon Collins
NYG.png
11
MOS361252.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
C.J. Mosley
BAL.png
12
BAR550678.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Anthony Barr
MIN.png
13
RIC621130.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Sheldon Richardson
MIN.png

14

DAR187187.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120

Ronald Darby

PHI.png

15
MAT195206.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Tyrann Mathieu
HOU.png
16
JOY464866.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Lamarcus Joyner
LA.png
17
BRI129168.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Teddy Bridgewater
NO.png
18
SMI576520.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Preston Smith
WAS.png
19
SUH046142.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Ndamukong Suh
LA.png
20
WRI487649.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
K.J. Wright
SEA.png
21
SMI827086.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Za'Darius Smith
BAL.png
22
ANS059326.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Ezekiel Ansah
DET.png
23
WIL208701.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Daryl Williams
CAR.png
24
CLI769272.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
WAS.png
25
GRA130064.png%3Acover()&w=120&h=120
Brandon Graham
PHI.png
 
 
 
 
Now let's clean this up a little bit. Brandon Graham is signed, that's 24. I don't believe Seattle will allow Frank Clark to leave, especially with their cap space, they've made that known... that's 23. Cowboys have also made known they will resign Lawrence, 22. It's a good bet Indianapolis isn't going to spend any money on Foles or Bridgewater, 20. Texans have proclaimed Clowney and Mathieu aren't going anywhere, 18 players.
 
Let's break down some contracts they could look at:

Earl Thomas: Eric Berry's contract is currently the highest annual value for a safety in the league at 13m$ a year. It is reported Earl wants 15, but the more important scoop is that he wants to be the highest paid safety. 13.5-14 million will probably get it done. Eric signed for 6 years, Earl is 30 and likely will get closer to a 3-4 year deal, but we got the cap room! Let's beat everyone else out and convince him to come join Andrew in Indy for 5 years of moula. I'm going to take Rodney Mcleod's contract at 7m$ a year and double it, giving Earl 5 years, 70m$. That would give Earl a 5.2m$ cap hit in year 1 (doubling Rodney's 2.6m Roseman set up), reducing the Colts cap number to 101.2m$ for 2019.
 
Le'Veon Bell: Hmm, what will his deal look like? Well what do we know? Steelers offered 5 yr, 70m$ (14m$ a year) and he said no. Wants to be paid like a RB and a WR combined. Quarterback money. Today Le'Veon is already 27. Getting that long of a deal is extraordinarily unlikely, but we have the money to make him a reasonable offer. I think if we offer 5 years again, everyone  else will back off. Front load the guarantees so we can dump him early if we have to, and even if he plays it out he'll only be 31 when it ends. I believe someone will offer him 15 for 4.  That sounds like something the Jets could afford, the Texans could afford. let's do a crazy 16m$ per  year for 5 years. I don't think anyone would be willing to try and match that. Give him a deal that beats Pittsburgh's, show him we care, give him that financial security every player wants (particularly him), especially a RB through his age 30 + 31 seasons. Conveniently, that's exactly double Lesean Mccoy's deal! What are the odds. Mccoy was a 5.5m% cap hit year one, doubling that leaves Indy with 90.2m$ left to play with.
 
Ronald Darby: Detroit’s Darius Slay was extended before the 2016 season to the tune of 4 years and $48M. At the time of his extension, Slay had accrued three seasons of play — he started 36 games and had 4 picks and 37 passes defensed, or a pick every nine games and a PBU every game, on average. He was 25 years old.For comparison, Darby will turn 25 this season — so he’ll be about Slay’s age. And over his past three seasons, even with the injury, Darby has started 36 games, seen 5 interceptions, and broken up 42 passes. That’s stronger statistical output than Slay. We'll also have to account for inflation, as that contract was 2 years ago. Let's offer 5 years, 65m$. Probably a bit excessive, but CBs usually have an inflated market during free agency. Remember Brandon Carr? Byron Maxwell? Jonathan Joseph? That's 13m$ a season, let's see where he places:
 
Annual Contract Value:
1. Redskins cornerback Josh Norman: $15 million
2. Jets cornerback Trumaine Johnson: $14.5 million 
3. Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes: $14 million
4. Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson: $14 million
5. Bears cornerback Kyle Fuller: $14 million
6. Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant: $13.8 million
7. Jaguars cornerback A.J. Bouye: $13.5 million
8. Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore: $13 million
9. Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins: $12.5 million
10. Titans cornerback Malcolm Butler $12.2 million
 
Barely top 10, for a guy hitting free agency and not signing early with his team while on a rookie deal, that's about right. Exactly Gilmore's deal, and he was an 8.6m$ cap hit year 1. Now the Colts are at 81.6m$
 
Trey Flowers: We need some pass rush on this super team! Flowers plays DE in a 4-3, but like Graham can move into a DT spot on passing downs. He hasn't had huge success rushing the passer, but consistent has averaged between 6 and 7.5 sacks the last 3 years. Here is our list of Dlineman:
 
1. Dolphins defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh: $19.1 million
2. Jets defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson: $17.2 million
3. Eagles defensive lineman Fletcher Cox: $17.1 million
4. Giants defensive lineman Olivier Vernon: $17 million
5. Texans defensive lineman JJ Watt: $16.7 million
6. Panthers defensive lineman Kawann Short: $16.1 million
7. Bills defensive lineman Marcell Dareus: $15.9 million
8. Giants defensive lineman Jason Pierre-Paul: $15.5 million
9. Titans defensive lineman Jurrell Casey: $15.1 million
10. Jaguars defensive lineman Calais Campbell: $15 million
 
A few Tackles in there, but I think this paints a nice picture for where we can expect Flowers to end up. I don't believe he'll get Watt/Vernon money due to production, but he'll be close. I think he's going to want to at least beat out Campbell and Pierre-Paul, putting him squarely at 16m$ a season. At 25 years old, a 6 year deal is right up his alley. JJ Watt was 6 years, 100m$, divided for annual value difference gives Flowers 6 years, 96m$. Divide JJ's year 1 cap hit again, and we get 13.4m$. Now we're at 68.2m$. And we've only just started!
 
Sheldon Richardson: Why bring in a big DE if you don't have the DTs to eat up the double teams? Minnesota signed him to a 1 year, prove-it deal at 8m$. Truth is, he played pretty well in Seattle the year prior and backed that up in Minny. I think we can give him a hefty raise at 4 years, 48m$ and convince him to leave the great white north for the... still white, somewhat less-north. Some of you might recognize this as Timmy Jernigan's deal. This would give him roughly a 7m$ cap hit year 1. Now we're down to 61.2m$
 
Daryl Williams: We've brought in all this talent, but we have to start thinking about keeping Luck upright. As Williams missed 2018 with injury, let's look at what Pro Football Focus has to say about him:
 
Williams is another player that is sidelined for the remainder of the 2018 season due to injury. It’s a tough break for the fourth-year tackle, as he was coming off a breakout 2017 season in which his 78.0 overall grade ranked behind only Ryan Ramczyk and Lane Johnson at the right tackle position. He showed effectiveness as a run blocker and as a pass blocker with top-10 marks in both among right tackles. Coming off of his rookie contract, Williams makes an intriguing tackle option in the 2019 free agency class. If his improvement in 2017 is anything to go by, whichever team ends up signing him could end up with one of the top tackles in the league.
 
Now, the list of top paid O-lineman:
 
1. Titans offensive lineman Taylor Lewan: $16 million
2. Giants offensive lineman Nate Solder: $15.5 million 
3. Falcons offensive lineman Jake Matthews: $14.5 million
4. Cowboys offensive lineman Zack Martin: $14 million
5. Jaguars offensive lineman Andrew Norwell: $13.3 million
6. Chargers offensive lineman Russell Okung: $13.25 million
7. Redskins offensive lineman Trent Williams: $13.2 million
8. Saints offensive lineman Terron Armstead: $13 million
9. Cowboys offensive lineman Tyron Smith: $12.2 million
10. Packers offensive lineman David Bakhtiari: $12 million
10. Chiefs offensive lineman Eric Fisher: $12 million 
10. Bengals offensive lineman Cordy Glenn: $12 million
10. Browns offensive lineman Kevin Zeitler: $12 million
 
Surprisingly lower than I expected. I believe we can get a guy coming off injury for a safe 4 year, 48 Million dollar deal. Maybe push it to 5 years, 60 if the panthers try and keep him. We've backloaded a lot of our deals thus far, so let's keep this one even across the duration. 12m$ cap hit year 1, with 49.2m$ still to finagle.
 
Anthony Barr: As great as the Colts played last year and as consistent as their defense was, do you know who they had on the Strongside at Linebacker? Najee Goode. No, seriously. Barr had an outstanding 2017 and followed it up with a weaker but still very nice 2018. He's only 26 and will probably command top dollar. Let's bring out the list:
 
1. Broncos linebacker Von Miller: $19.1 million
2. Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston: $16.8 million
3. Cardinals linebacker Chandler Jones: $16.5 million
4. Chargers linebacker Melvin Ingram: $16.5 million
5. Rams linebacker Robert Quinn: $14.3 million
6. Packers linebacker Clay Matthews: $13.2 million
7. Browns linebacker Jamie Collins: $12.5 million
8. Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly: $12.4 million
9. Packers linebacker Nick Perry: $12 million
10. Redskins linebacker Ryan Kerrigan: $11.5 million
 
Lot of pass rushers in there, safe to say he's not making anywhere near Von Miller money. The key one to pick out is Kuechly. Barr made 12 million last season, and he's probably looking to get a raise due to production. He'll have a whole lot of suitors so we'll have to break out the bank to get this guy. 5 years, 13.5 m$ per year should get it done. Let's avoid backloading too much and average this one out as well, mostly because I'm tired of looking up all this crap. That brings us down to 35.7m$ in cap room,  still a lot to maneuver with.
 
Antonio Brown: And Now, the big one. Steelers want a 1 for him, maybe someone offers it. But if people did want to give up a 1 to get a diva at 20+m$ a year, wouldn't they have done it by now? The problem is he's reporting to want guaranteed money, which his current contract has none. Nobody wants to give it to him, evidently. More likely, I think he can be had for a 2 this year and a 3 next year. We'll still have our 1, 2, 3 left this year, and we'll get him on a nice deal that won't kill our cap right away. As soon as he's brought in, lets rip up the old contract (steelers get hit with all the dead cap in a trade) and give him what he wants. Originally he was at 4 years, 68m$. Lets do 4 years, 60 million, 30 million fully guaranteed. First two years right up front at signing, then we can deal with whatever issues he brings up after that. Steelers set his old contract up so it was only an 8 million cap hit year one. That's going to be crazy backloaded, so lets try and hit 10m$ year one. Combine that with the fact that his contract is worth less than what Pitt gave him, that should spread it out fairly nicely.
 
25.7m$ left, and I think we should stop there. We'll still have expiring contracts in 2020 and 2021, and we don't want this offseason to kill our team in the future. This will give us room to resign those guys, plus we still have all our original picks this year to inject youth and bring some other position cap numbers down. Likely, we'll eve have some guys to trade or release due to this influx of talent, giving us a bit more room again.
 
 We just added 8 pro bowl/all-pro caliber players to an already stacked team. Yes, this is one of those 'ONLY WORKS IN MADDEN!!' threads. But the Rams did something similar last year, and made the Super Bowl. Philly did almost this exact thing in 2011, didn't work for a variety of reasons, but Luck sure ain't Michael Vick, and that D-Coordinator sure ain't an OL coach. How did I do?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Colts are definitely one to watch. They are a team that last year showed a real turnaround with a good young HC who's only just finished his first year and a QB who's come back from a number of years out due to his shoulder. That team, if they make the right moves, is definitely one to watch next year as a legit contender. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Their cap situation is nuts! It's as if they never paid luck. I'll be intrigued to see how they go about business.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Antonio Brown would be a nice addition if he could get his head right. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can't imagine the Steelers would trade Brown to the AFC if they could help it.  Especially not when the Niners are sitting there, needing a WR, and Brown's already expressed his desire to play there.  

They're definite players for someone like Golden Tate.   Maybe even a Demaryius Thomas-type if they want a possession complement to Hilton, but someone like Tate probably fits their offense better.    

I could see them making a big splash move or two defensively - Landon Collins, Demarcus Lawrence, etc.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/3/2019 at 5:31 AM, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Colts are definitely one to watch. They are a team that last year showed a real turnaround with a good young HC who's only just finished his first year and a QB who's come back from a number of years out due to his shoulder. That team, if they make the right moves, is definitely one to watch next year as a legit contender. 

That is true.  I see them being the biggest threat to the Chiefs in the AFC  next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, hcs3 said:

That is true.  I see them being the biggest threat to the Chiefs in the AFC  next year.

And unfortunately the Pats too. Can't write them off yet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The colts could use some play-makers on defense. Luckily, for them it looks like there are quite a few of them available in free agency. If they get the draft/ free agency right this year, they could be setup to be competitive for a long time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Colts got really lucky when McDaniels stiffed them and they hired Reich as head coach instead. The Colts made big strides last year, there's a good chance they are a contender next season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would like to see the Colts beat the Pats finally

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

And unfortunately the Pats too. Can't write them off yet. 

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I am ready to write them off.  Brady's stats may not show it, but he's ready to go.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good analysis OP, well done. They will definitely follow the Rams formula this offseason.

Luck needs a stud RB or his arm will never hold up. Didn't they put in his backup a couple of times to make a hail mary?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, SNOORDA said:

Bumping in case the Colts do something crazy 

:roll: 

I really thought they'd make some major moves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, ShakeThatMonkey said:

:roll: 

I really thought they'd make some major moves.

I thought at least one major move.  Luck looked good last year.  Give the man some weapons already.  The AFC is ripe for the taking. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They have been among the least active so far. Typical of them. They expect Luck to do everything.

Call me crazy but the Browns might have something to say about the AFC this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/6/2019 at 8:58 AM, madriver said:

Good analysis OP, well done. They will definitely follow the Rams formula this offseason.

Definitely, or not at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this