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TravelerVic

I am not sure that there will be a NFL season...?

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3 hours ago, SNOORDA said:

If everyone is going to get it that's one thing.  If everyone gets it at the same time that is quite another thing. 

This. The virus itself, with proper treatment, has a death rate in 1-2% range. However, the death rate without proper treatment jumps to the 5-6% rate. The mitigation efforts being taken are to slow the spread of the disease to keeps hospitals from being overwhelmed so people that could live with proper treatment can get it.

flattening_the_curve_final.jpg

 

The vaccine is a year away, probably a couple months more than that. Still, that does not mean the country is expected to survive like this that long. By slowing the spread until the hospital capacity is increased, more ventilators and masks etc..., and more tests are available then we can also cut the death rate. I don't expect things will be completely back to normal for a year, but things should be more normal.

On the topic itself. I'm not sure if there will be a season either, but I don't think we're there yet.

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1 hour ago, Sturm said:

(unable to get unemployment in NJ right now as I was a wedding photographer)

If I read correctly, 'freelance' jobs will be able to collect. I would think that your job would be 'freelance'.

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4 hours ago, Sturm said:

 add me to the list of job losses. (unable to get unemployment in NJ right now as I was a wedding photographer)

Meetoo, laid off for this week . . . although I'm semi-retired and only working part time.

 But this could easily go on for weeks or months.     :thumbsdown:

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8 hours ago, McNabbIsGone said:

Meetoo, laid off for this week . . . although I'm semi-retired and only working part time.

 But this could easily go on for weeks or months.     :thumbsdown:

Unfortunately I think it's going to be months. My guess would be a minimum of 2 but likely more. 

Sorry to hear you've been laid off. 

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6 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Unfortunately I think it's going to be months. My guess would be a minimum of 2 but likely more. 

Sorry to hear you've been laid off. 

Thanks. appreciate the sentiment.

With each passing day I see more & more restictions and / or changes.

I no longer am living hand-to-mouth like I was 20 years ago. Our four kids are all grown up and responsible for themselves.

But I still have fears of where this thing is going and what's down the road. The guys I work with are all 20 or 30 something

and raising families or dealing with life, divorce / DYE-fuss, lawyers, strange women and whatever else. They're all dealing

with reduction of hours and possible termination.

We're in uncharted waters . . . and it's pretty damned scary.

God help us all. 

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1 hour ago, McNabbIsGone said:

But I still have fears of where this thing is going and what's down the road. The guys I work with are all 20 or 30 something

Yeah I wonder what kind of world we have waiting for us on the other side of this. 

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10 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Yeah I wonder what kind of world we have waiting for us on the other side of this. 

Once a treatment and vaccine have been developed, I'd expect things to go back to 'normal', or close to it. How long will that take? Well, a vaccine won't be available until probably next year (from the little that I've heard). Of course, a vaccine won't treat those that need treatment. A vaccine is preventative, like the flu shot. So it'll help people in the future to avoid it.

At this point though, to talk about the subject of this topic, unless they come up with a good treatment by June or July, should the season be cancelled or cut short? Having 60,000 to 70,000 people in 16 stadiums for a full 17 week season just doesn't sound prudent as of today and I would fully expect that the London series (and Mexico City), won't take place (short of a big turn around in this current situation).

So let's jump to the worst case scenario (for the NFL season, not for humanity :huh: ). Worst case, the season is cancelled entirely. As far as I know, every NFL players contract is just in limbo. So players that would be free agents in 2021, would not be, since 2020 didn't happen. Like if a player were to hold out, for example, he'd have to be back on the team by week 10 (?) to count as an accrued season toward free agency.

This current world situation really throws a lot of 'normal' life into limbo. Comparatively speaking, things like the NFL season (for us fans), is fairly low down the totem pole of importance. It'll suck if it has to be cancelled until 2021, but there's some things more important than whether a season gets played or not. Of course, for the players and other employees who depend on the NFL for their livelihood, that's a different story. But when all's said and done, I have faith that we'll come through ok.

I just hope that everyone here (friend or foe), come through this thing safe and healthy (that includes all friends and family members).

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2 minutes ago, VaBeach_Eagle said:

this point though, to talk about the subject of this topic, unless they come up with a good treatment by June or July

I can't see this going on that long? I mean it didn't in China? I think they were on lockdown for 2 months?

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3 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I mean it didn't in China?

Do you take what China is saying as 100% truth?

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Just now, VaBeach_Eagle said:

Do you take what China is saying as 100% truth?

No hence my caveat in another thread about what we are being told. Whether that's the truth who knows. 

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2 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

No hence my caveat in another thread about what we are being told. Whether that's the truth who knows. 

The way I'm taking what China is saying is, if they say 'this', then the opposite is true. If they say that 2500 people died, I'm thinking 250,000.

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On 3/26/2020 at 1:37 PM, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I can't see this going on that long? I mean it didn't in China? I think they were on lockdown for 2 months?

Iran is estimating millions--millions---dead from the virus. England: 1/2 million. 300,000 Germany. And that's with competent leadership, which the US is currently lacking.

People have long underestimated this pandemic and its effects which is why we are where we are. It's going to get worse folks, not better. At least not this year.

US citizens are stockpiling guns like never before and the unemployment rate will probably reach close to 20% by August. That's about the time when citizens start looking to lop of the heads of their leaders.

My advice: hunker down, stay home and watch reruns of old NFL games for the next year because there will very likely not be 2020 NFL football.

 

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1 hour ago, madriver said:

Iran is estimating millions--millions---dead from the virus. England: 1/2 million. 300,000 Germany. And that's with competent leadership, which the US is currently lacking

1/2 million in England? Where did you hear that?

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5 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

1/2 million in England? Where did you hear that?

That was the high mark projection from an Imperial College professor in the UK without social distancing or other preventative measures. His forecast is about 20,000 dead with the measures now being taken. You'll to have forgive Americans for not differentiating between the UK and England, we suck at geography.

 

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43 minutes ago, zenclaybourne said:

That was the high mark projection from an Imperial College professor in the UK without social distancing or other preventative measures. His forecast is about 20,000 dead with the measures now being taken. You'll to have forgive Americans for not differentiating between the UK and England, we suck at geography.

 

That estimation for the UK was revised from 500,000 to 20,000. Link

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1 hour ago, zenclaybourne said:

That was the high mark projection from an Imperial College professor in the UK without social distancing or other preventative measures. His forecast is about 20,000 dead with the measures now being taken. You'll to have forgive Americans for not differentiating between the UK and England, we suck at geography.

20,000? That's 2 and a half times more than the reported number in China. That's double the current Italian number. That still feels high but hey it's a prediction I guess. 

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2 hours ago, xzmattzx said:

That estimation for the UK was revised from 500,000 to 20,000. Link

Thank you for the link. I thought I covered that already since he was explaining the difference in numbers was the steps being taken in the U.K.

2 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

20,000? That's 2 and a half times more than the reported number in China. That's double the current Italian number. That still feels high but hey it's a prediction I guess. 

I have no idea if he's right or not, I was just explaining the source of the numbers. But a quick look, this virus is expected to kill 1-2% of people, so 20,000 means somewhere between 1 and 2 million people would be infected, which isn't crazy unfortunately. The current death rate in the U.K. is 5.15%, only 400,000 people would need to be infected for 20,000 to be hit at that rate. It could also be accounting for health care overload that would heighten the death rate 2-3 times over. The 500,000 would likely include the overwhelmed health care system but it would be 25-50 million if not. The U.K. has somewhere in the realm of 66 million people, so it would be 40-75% of the population. At the current death rate, only 10 million people would need to be infected to top 500,000 deaths. The actual worldwide death rate is sitting at 4.64% right now, but Italy is unquestionably affecting that. It's at 3.64% without accounting for Italy. 13.74 million infections are needed at that rate.

I hope you guys handle it better than us. The more I think about this the more I question the feasibility of a football season. Only read the spoiler if interested in my shallow and depressing analysis.

Spoiler

Because even when our leaders finally started taking this seriously, they ended up ordering Americans to come home within days which led to this in our New York airports 12 days ago.

Now the state has triple the U.K.'s infection total. Can't imagine how that happened.

And honestly, we're in an exponential growth that is just terrifying. Ten days ago we were adding 1,400 cases a day. The next day 5,900, then 5,400, then 6,400 a week ago. 7,800, then 10,600, followed by 9,900 on Monday, 12,000 on Tuesday, 18,000 on Wednesday and 17,800 on Thursday. We lead the world in infections now. We've lost more people to this virus than Japan has infected.

We're roughly doubling cases every three days. At this rate, which I really hope doesn't continue, we'll be at 200,000 on Monday, 400,000 on Thursday and 800,000 by April 5. This is with some mitigation efforts. So far the death rate in the U.S is 1.63%, thankfully we have some great doctors, but there's almost no way that holds if this exponential growth continues much longer. If both trends do hold for the next 9 days, we're looking at more than 13,000 dead. As you can guess, another three days would push it to more than 26,000, more than. Two weeks from now we'd be at 52,000 dead the day before Easter. That would be assuming the health care systems aren't overcome causing those numbers to grow even more. Italy is at 10.55% death rate because of the collapsed system.

Now the optimistic view would be that the numbers are only growing because we're finally testing more. Maybe, just maybe, the death rate will drop as we go.

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9 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

20,000? That's 2 and a half times more than the reported number in China. That's double the current Italian number. That still feels high but hey it's a prediction I guess. 

This prediction is from the same type of person that claimed we'd all be underwater ten years ago.

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The worst of it should be here in April but it will still be going around for a long time.  When you think of the calculation that one infe3cted player would potentially shut down the entire team...yeah it doesn't look good for football this year.

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14 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

the reported number in China

Seriously, don't trust anything that comes out of China. Take their numbers and multiply them by a factor of 5 or 10.

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On 3/25/2020 at 2:14 PM, VaBeach_Eagle said:

If I read correctly, 'freelance' jobs will be able to collect. I would think that your job would be 'freelance'.

As of right now for NJ they havent aloud me to do it yet. for my 2019 tax i was employed and started my business end of 2019. Which I didn't file a 1099 because I didn't get my first check till january. I was honestly booked for 6 months too. Iv spent the last 3 days getting phone calls about cancellations wanting deposits back etc. -- I have all my clients sign contracts BUT, right now with the way the world is, I can't in my heart keep their deposit. I have refunded everyone who did ask through paypal.

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20 minutes ago, Sturm said:

As of right now for NJ they havent aloud me to do it yet. for my 2019 tax i was employed and started my business end of 2019. Which I didn't file a 1099 because I didn't get my first check till january. I was honestly booked for 6 months too. Iv spent the last 3 days getting phone calls about cancellations wanting deposits back etc. -- I have all my clients sign contracts BUT, right now with the way the world is, I can't in my heart keep their deposit. I have refunded everyone who did ask through paypal.

I just checked the Virginia Employment Commission website (they do unemployment here), and there's a note that they will get 'guidance' from the Federal Government as to how to implement this new system and then give instructions to anyone who would need to apply.

So I'd give it until Monday or Tuesday and check back to see if they have a system in place yet.

I'm not in dire need at the moment, I've always had a small hint of 'prepper' in me (not to a great extent), but I can 'hold out' for a month or two and be fine (food/supply wise) and I've been able to save a little so that I have some financial 'insulation' (to a small degree). That said, I'm pulling for you and all others who may have a more immediate need.

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1 minute ago, VaBeach_Eagle said:

I just checked the Virginia Employment Commission website (they do unemployment here), and there's a note that they will get 'guidance' from the Federal Government as to how to implement this new system and then give instructions to anyone who would need to apply.

So I'd give it until Monday or Tuesday and check back to see if they have a system in place yet.

I'm not in dire need at the moment, I've always had a small hint of 'prepper' in me (not to a great extent), but I can 'hold out' for a month or two and be fine (food/supply wise) and I've been able to save a little so that I have some financial 'insulation' (to a small degree). That said, I'm pulling for you and all others who may have a more immediate need.

Cool, ill keep checking each day and see. I am ok for a few months. Before I quit my day job I saved about a year worth of salary, but that can bleed real quick if this goes on for 2-3 months.

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